China was positive again today before Alibaba's BABA 0.00%↑ earnings in 2 days - management guided that double 11 performance was similar to last year, which is on the higher end of consensus expectations. Stock is up 11% today.
More importantly, the Xi-Biden catchup in Bali looks pretty positive. Bloomberg:
Beijing described the in-person meeting as “candid, in-depth and constructive” — with the last term usually used by China to suggest a positive development. When Xi and Biden spoke by telephone in July, just days before Pelosi’s Taiwan trip, that description was missing from the statement Beijing issued afterwards.
Things are looking good for China.
For the US, it might be too early to celebrate. A week ago (before that positive CPI surprise), the market was pricing in peak rates at 4.95 in Jun 2023. Now, they're expecting 4.24 in May 2023. That seems a bit too drastic given one positive CPI print.
While markets will definitely bottom before the pivot, it would be more prudent to look for one more inflation print before jumping to conclusions.